Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 5Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Allianz Stadion, Wien
The Footlab model makes Rapid Vienna the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Sturm Graz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Rapid Vienna (2,025) and Sturm Graz (2,095).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rapid Vienna have 12 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats; Sturm Graz have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Grazer AK(home) | 8-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paide(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ried(away) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Paide(away) | 4-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | SCR Altach(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TSV Hartberg(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | WSG Wattens(away) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Rapid Vienna win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Sturm Graz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna | Bundesliga |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Rapid Vienna 0-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Rapid Vienna 2-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Sturm Graz 1-2 Rapid Vienna | Bundesliga |
| May 18, 2025 | Rapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rapid Vienna score 3.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sturm Graz score 2.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid Vienna | 3.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Sturm Graz | 2.3 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rapid Vienna sit 1st in Bundesliga (9 points from 3 matches) and Sturm Graz sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
- The Footlab model makes Rapid Vienna the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Sturm Graz.
- Where and when is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz played?
- Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz is played on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Allianz Stadion, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.