Sturm Graz vs Ried: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Merkur Arena, Graz
The Footlab AI model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Ried. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sturm Graz wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Sturm Graz starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (2,171 vs 2,023).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sturm Graz vs Ried
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sturm Graz
4-2-3-1- 14O. Diakité
- 4J. Gorenc Stankovič
- 19S. Seidl
- 43Jacob Peter Hödl
- 39Luca Weinhandl
- 78V. Matoshi
- 2J. Quarshie
- 30P. Koller
- 23A. Malic
- 27L. Balbo
- 53D. Khudyakov
Ried
4-2-3-1- 47Evan Eghosa Aisowieren
- 12A. Bajić
- 22S. Schwab
- 6Y. Maart
- 8M. Rasner
- 11J. Rhodes
- 30O. Steurer
- 28S. Chukwudi
- 17P. Pomer
- 18F. Rossdorfer
- 1A. Leitner
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:29 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sturm Graz have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Ried have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Floridsdorfer AC(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 0-3 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lask Linz(home) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | WSG Wattens(away) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | SKU Amstetten(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Wolfsberger AC(home) | 4-1 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Wallern / Marienkirchen(away) | 5-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Sturm Graz wins, 2 draws, 0 Ried wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Sturm Graz 1-0 Ried | Bundesliga |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Ried 1-3 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Ried 1-3 Sturm Graz | Cup |
| Oct 30, 2022 | Sturm Graz 2-1 Ried | Bundesliga |
| Aug 6, 2022 | Ried 1-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Mar 6, 2022 | Ried 2-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Sturm Graz score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ried score 2.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Ried | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sturm Graz sit 4th in Bundesliga (14 points from 8 matches) and Ried sit 5th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 11 |
A question about Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs Ried?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Ried.
- Where and when is Sturm Graz vs Ried played?
- Sturm Graz vs Ried is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Merkur Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.