Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Merkur Arena, Graz
The Footlab model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Wolfsberger AC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Sturm Graz starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (2,084 vs 1,970).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sturm Graz have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Wolfsberger AC have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SCR Altach(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TSV Hartberg(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(away) | 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Austria Vienna(home) | 3-0 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Lauterach(away) | 5-1 | Cup |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Velden(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Sturm Graz win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Wolfsberger AC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Sturm Graz 1-3 Wolfsberger AC | Bundesliga |
| May 24, 2025 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Wolfsberger AC | Bundesliga |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Wolfsberger AC 1-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Sturm Graz 0-3 Wolfsberger AC | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sturm Graz score 2.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Wolfsberger AC score 2.8 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 2.2 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Wolfsberger AC | 2.8 | 0.7 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sturm Graz sit 3rd in Bundesliga (8 points from 4 matches) and Wolfsberger AC sit 6th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Wolfsberger AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
- The Footlab model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Wolfsberger AC.
- Where and when is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC played?
- Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC is played on January 23, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Merkur Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.