Dinamo Zagreb vs Sturm Graz: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 8Kick-off on January 28, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
The Footlab AI model makes Dinamo Zagreb the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Sturm Graz. The most likely score is 1-1. If Dinamo Zagreb wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,151 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dinamo Zagreb vs Sturm Graz?
On Elo ratings, Dinamo Zagreb has 2,095 points and Sturm Graz 2,050.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Dinamo Zagreb vs Sturm Graz
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Dinamo Zagreb
4-1-4-1- 9D. Beljo
- 27J. Mišić
- 10L. Stojković
- 11A. Hoxha
- 99M. Oršić
- 7Dani Rodríguez
- 15N. Galešić
- 36Sergi Domínguez
- 25M. Valinčić
- 22Olof Matteo Perez Vinlöf
- 24D. Kotarski
Sturm Graz
3-4-3- 19S. Seidl
- 14O. Diakité
- 78V. Matoshi
- 4J. Gorenc Stankovič
- 39Luca Weinhandl
- 28J. Heil
- 27L. Balbo
- 2J. Quarshie
- 30P. Koller
- 23A. Malic
- 22A. Helac
Computed on November 8, 2026 at 07:19 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dinamo Zagreb have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Sturm Graz have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | NK Varazdin(away) | 3-1 | HNL |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Rudes(away) | 0-1 | HNL |
| Oct 27, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(home) | 2-1 | HNL |
| Oct 22, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 2-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(home) | 3-4 | Bundesliga |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Celje(home) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Wolfsberger AC(away) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(away) | 2-3 | Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Ried(home) | 2-2 | Bundesliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Dinamo Zagreb win, 0 draws, 0 Sturm Graz wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2022 | Dinamo Zagreb 4-3 Sturm Graz | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Dinamo Zagreb vs Sturm Graz on Jan 23, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Dinamo Zagreb score 2.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sturm Graz score 1.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | 2.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Sturm Graz | 1.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dinamo Zagreb sit 9th in UEFA Europa League (7 points from 4 matches) and Sturm Graz sit 24th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
A question about Dinamo Zagreb vs Sturm Graz?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dinamo Zagreb vs Sturm Graz?
- The Footlab AI model makes Dinamo Zagreb the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Sturm Graz.
- Where and when is Dinamo Zagreb vs Sturm Graz played?
- Dinamo Zagreb vs Sturm Graz is played on January 28, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Maksimir, in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.