Sumqayıt vs Araz: prediction and stats
Premyer LiqaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Kapital Bank Arena, Sumqayıt
The Footlab AI model makes Sumqayıt the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Araz. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sumqayıt wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sumqayıt vs Araz?
On Elo ratings, Sumqayıt has 1,666 points and Araz 1,688.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sumqayıt vs Araz
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sumqayıt
4-3-3- 10Ronaldo Junior Vásquez Herasme
- 9Jeam
- 11M. Bangré
- 42C. Badolo
- 55Lucas Black
- 29E. Mustafaev
- 4Easah Suliman
- 5Renan
- 80Keffel
- 21Tiago Almeida
- 16M. Johansson
Araz
4-3-3- 9A. Salyanskiy
- 23A. Fernandez
- 19S. Abdallah
- 6Patrick Andrade
- 11M. Mara
- 2A. Rzayev
- 5L. Dumančić
- 27B. Letić
- 17I. Paro
- 12Bruno
- 99T. Əhmədli
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:18 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sumqayıt have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Araz have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Qabala(home) | 4-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Kapaz(away) | 1-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Şamaxı FK(home) | 1-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Turan(away) | 1-2 | Premyer Liqa |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Qarabag(home) | 0-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Kapaz(home) | 0-2 | Premyer Liqa |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Şamaxı FK(away) | 1-2 | Premyer Liqa |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Turan(home) | 2-2 | Premyer Liqa |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Qarabag(away) | 2-3 | Premyer Liqa |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sabah FA(home) | 0-1 | Premyer Liqa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sumqayıt wins, 1 draw, 3 Araz wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Sumqayıt 2-1 Araz | Premyer Liqa |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Araz 1-0 Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Sumqayıt 3-2 Araz | Premyer Liqa |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Araz 2-0 Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Sumqayıt 0-0 Araz | Premyer Liqa |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Araz 1-0 Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa |
How many goals should we expect?
Sumqayıt score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Araz score 1.0 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumqayıt | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Araz | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sumqayıt sit 8th in Premyer Liqa (5 points from 6 matches) and Araz sit 12th (2 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sumqayıt | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 5 |
| 12 | Araz | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 2 |
A question about Sumqayıt vs Araz?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sumqayıt vs Araz?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sumqayıt the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Araz.
- Where and when is Sumqayıt vs Araz played?
- Sumqayıt vs Araz is played on October 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Kapital Bank Arena, in the Premyer Liqa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.