Sunderland vs Brighton: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadium of Light, Sunderland
The Footlab AI model makes Brighton the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Sunderland. The most likely score is 1-1. If Brighton wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sunderland vs Brighton?
Brighton starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (2,328 vs 2,159).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sunderland vs Brighton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sunderland
4-2-3-1- 9B. Brobbey
- 27N. Sadiki
- 34G. Xhaka
- 28E. Le Fée
- 10N. Angulo
- 12T. Meunier
- 20N. Mukiele
- 4K. Danso
- 5D. Ballard
- 17Reinildo
- 22R. Roefs
Known absences
H. DiarraOut · Hamstring injury
R. MundleOut · Knee injury
Brighton
4-2-3-1- 19C. Kostoulas
- 13P. Groß
- 25D. Gómez
- 29M. De Cuyper
- 26Y. Ayari
- 35M. Yalcouyé
- 21O. Boscagli
- 44L. Vušković
- 24F. Kadıoğlu
- 4P. Struijk
- 1B. Verbruggen
Known absences
E. FergusonOut · Ankle injury
S. TzimasOut · Knee injury
Y. MintehOut · Injured- J. HinshelwoodDoubtful · Injured
K. MitomaDoubtful · Hamstring injury- L. DunkDoubtful · Injured
M. WiefferDoubtful · Knee injury- O. AzeezDoubtful · Muscle injury
Z. YohannaDoubtful · Lacking Match Fitness
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:41 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sunderland have 9 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats; Brighton have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 3-5 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 3-4 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Sunderland wins, 1 draw, 2 Brighton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Sunderland 0-1 Brighton | Premier League |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Brighton 0-0 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Aug 23, 2011 | Brighton 1-0 Sunderland | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Sunderland vs Brighton on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sunderland score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Brighton score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Brighton | 2.3 | 1.1 | 8 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sunderland sit 14th in Premier League (4 points from 5 matches) and Brighton sit 3rd (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
A question about Sunderland vs Brighton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sunderland vs Brighton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Brighton the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Sunderland.
- Where and when is Sunderland vs Brighton played?
- Sunderland vs Brighton is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium of Light, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.