Chelsea vs Bournemouth: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stamford Bridge, London
The Footlab AI model makes Chelsea the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Bournemouth. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chelsea wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Chelsea (2,255) and Bournemouth (2,272).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chelsea
3-4-2-1- 18D. Welbeck
- 17M. Rogers
- 7Pedro Neto
- 45R. Lavia
- 21J. Hato
- 29Pep Chavarría
- 4V. Barco
- 3W. Fofana
- 6L. Colwill
- 5M. Lacroix
- 1E. Martínez
Known absences
C. PalmerOut · Muscle injury- J. Bynoe-GittensOut · Ankle injury
João PedroOut · Knee injury- R. JamesOut · Muscle injury
E. EmeghaDoubtful · Muscle injury
M. CaicedoDoubtful · Calf injury
M. PalestraDoubtful · Thigh injury
Bournemouth
4-2-3-1- 9Evanilson
- 37Rayan
- 16M. Tavernier
- 12T. Adams
- 19J. Kluivert
- 10R. Christie
- 5J. Hill
- 14António Silva
- 3A. Truffert
- 15A. Smith
- 1Đ. Petrović
Known absences
- A. ScottOut · Thigh injury
E. KroupiOut · Foot injury
J. AraujoOut · Thigh injury
A. AdliDoubtful · Calf injury
D. BrooksDoubtful · Injured
Veljko MilosavljevićDoubtful · Injured
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 07:53 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelsea have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Bournemouth have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 6-3 | League Cup |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 4-3 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 4-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chelsea wins, 4 draws, 0 Bournemouth wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025 | Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Bournemouth 0-0 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Jan 14, 2025 | Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Bournemouth 0-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| May 19, 2024 | Chelsea 2-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Bournemouth 0-0 Chelsea | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Chelsea vs Bournemouth on Dec 30, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Chelsea score 2.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bournemouth score 2.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Bournemouth | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelsea sit 10th in Premier League (7 points from 5 matches) and Bournemouth sit 17th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
A question about Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chelsea the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Bournemouth.
- Where and when is Chelsea vs Bournemouth played?
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stamford Bridge, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.