Aston Villa vs Brentford: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Brentford. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Brentford?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Aston Villa (2,225) and Brentford (2,189).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Brentford have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(home) | 7-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Aston Villa win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Brentford win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Aston Villa 0-1 Brentford | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2025 | Brentford 1-1 Aston Villa | League Cup |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Brentford 1-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Brentford 0-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Dec 4, 2024 | Aston Villa 3-1 Brentford | Premier League |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Aston Villa 3-3 Brentford | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Brentford on Feb 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 2.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Brentford score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
| Brentford | 2.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 20th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Brentford sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Brentford?
- The Footlab model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Brentford.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Brentford played?
- Aston Villa vs Brentford is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.