Surkhon vs Nasaf: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on October 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Markaziy Stadion, Termiz
The Footlab AI model makes Nasaf the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Surkhon. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Surkhon vs Nasaf?
Nasaf starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (1,789 vs 1,630).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Surkhon vs Nasaf
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Surkhon
4-3-3- 11R. Friday
- 19F. Qodirov
- 33U. Kuvandikov
- 21Tornike Dzebniauri
- 8H. Sherbotayev
- 15D. Ramazonov
- 7D. Tursunov
- 6B. Shamsiev
- 66B. Shaydulov
- 26B. Shukurullaev
- 25O. Boymurodov
Nasaf
4-3-3- 10B. Abdukholikov
- 70A. Gulomov
- 7A. Shala
- 15O. Rustamov
- 14S. Muhitdinov
- 17M. Rahmatov
- 92U. Eshmurodov
- 8Z. Abdurahmatov
- 5G. G'aybullaev
- 4A. Komilov
- 1A. Ne'matov
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 09:34 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Surkhon have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Nasaf have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Qizilqum(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Kokand-1912(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Neftchi(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Bunyodkor(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Aug 29, 2026 | PFK Guliston(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Dinamo Samarqand(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Andijan(away) | 4-1 | Super League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Khalidiya(away) | 0-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Bunyodkor(home) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Neftchi(home) | 6-2 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Surkhon win, 1 draw, 4 Nasaf wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Nasaf 0-1 Surkhon | Super League |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Surkhon 1-2 Nasaf | Super League |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Nasaf 1-0 Surkhon | Super League |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Nasaf 1-1 Surkhon | Super League |
| May 20, 2024 | Surkhon 0-1 Nasaf | Super League |
| Aug 29, 2023 | Surkhon 1-2 Nasaf | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Surkhon score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Nasaf score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surkhon | 0.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Nasaf | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Surkhon sit 12th in Super League (27 points from 23 matches) and Nasaf sit 5th (37 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nasaf | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 22 | 37 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 28 | 27 |
A question about Surkhon vs Nasaf?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Surkhon vs Nasaf?
- The Footlab AI model makes Nasaf the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Surkhon.
- Where and when is Surkhon vs Nasaf played?
- Surkhon vs Nasaf is played on October 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Markaziy Stadion, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.