Swansea vs Middlesbrough: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 46Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Swansea. The most likely score is 1-1. If Middlesbrough wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,395 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swansea vs Middlesbrough?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Swansea (2,056) and Middlesbrough (2,009).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Swansea vs Middlesbrough
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Swansea
4-3-3- 49M. Yeo
- 30Joseph Okopu
- 33A. Idah
- 4J. Fulton
- 6M. Stamenić
- 8E. Just
- 14J. Tymon
- 26F. Lissah
- 5B. Cabango
- 23S. Welsh
- 22L. Vigouroux
Middlesbrough
3-4-2-1- 7W. Lankshear
- 2C. Brittain
- 10A. Morris
- 11A. Cozier-Duberry
- 30Neto Borges
- 6S. Berhalter
- 8R. McGree
- 29A. Malanda
- 4A. Phillips
- 12L. Ayling
- 1R. Vítek
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:08 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swansea have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Middlesbrough have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lincoln(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Burnley(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Southampton(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 3-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 4-3 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Swansea win, 1 draw, 4 Middlesbrough wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Swansea 2-2 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Middlesbrough 1-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Swansea 1-0 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Middlesbrough 1-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Middlesbrough 2-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Swansea 1-2 Middlesbrough | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Swansea vs Middlesbrough on Apr 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Swansea score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Middlesbrough score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 1.3 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swansea sit 1st in Championship (23 points from 10 matches) and Middlesbrough sit 2nd (21 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 21 |
A question about Swansea vs Middlesbrough?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swansea vs Middlesbrough?
- The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Swansea.
- Where and when is Swansea vs Middlesbrough played?
- Swansea vs Middlesbrough is played on May 1, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Swansea.com Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.