Tallinna Kalev II vs Narva U21: prediction and stats
Esiliiga BRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Narva U21 the favourite at 55%, against 21% for a draw and 25% for Tallinna Kalev II. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tallinna Kalev II vs Narva U21?
Narva U21 starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (1,344 vs 1,181).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tallinna Kalev II have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Narva U21 have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Legion(home) | 3-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | JK Tabasalu(away) | 1-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Johvi Phoenix(home) | 3-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Narva U21(away) | 0-5 | Esiliiga B |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Rakvere FC Freedom(home) | 4-2 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Tulevik(away) | 3-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Levadia U19(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Johvi Phoenix(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Legion(away) | 3-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II(home) | 5-0 | Esiliiga B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Tallinna Kalev II win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Narva U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Narva U21 5-0 Tallinna Kalev II | Esiliiga B |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II 2-3 Narva U21 | Esiliiga B |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Narva U21 3-1 Tallinna Kalev II | Esiliiga B |
Last archived meeting: Narva U21 vs Tallinna Kalev II on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tallinna Kalev II score 2.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Narva U21 score 2.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tallinna Kalev II | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Narva U21 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tallinna Kalev II sit 9th in Esiliiga B (19 points from 24 matches) and Narva U21 sit 1st (45 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Narva U21 | 24 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 60 | 34 | 45 |
| 9 | Tallinna Kalev II | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 49 | 61 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tallinna Kalev II vs Narva U21?
- The Footlab model makes Narva U21 the favourite at 55%, against 21% for a draw and 25% for Tallinna Kalev II.
- Where and when is Tallinna Kalev II vs Narva U21 played?
- Tallinna Kalev II vs Narva U21 is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru, in the Esiliiga B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.