Tanzania vs Guinea-Bissau: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 1Kick-off on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Gombani Stadium, Gombani
The Footlab model makes Tanzania the favourite at 50%, against 30% for a draw and 20% for Guinea-Bissau. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tanzania vs Guinea-Bissau?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Tanzania (1,490) and Guinea-Bissau (1,408).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tanzania have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Guinea-Bissau have 1, 4 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Mação(away) | 6-0 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Liechtenstein(home) | 0-1 | FIFA Series |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Morocco(away) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Tunisia(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Uganda(away) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Burkina Faso(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Burkina Faso(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Egypt(away) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Ethiopia(away) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Djibouti(home) | 2-0 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
How many goals should we expect?
Tanzania score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Guinea-Bissau score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanzania | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tanzania sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (10 points from 6 matches) and Guinea-Bissau sit 3rd (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tanzania | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Guinea-Bissau | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tanzania vs Guinea-Bissau?
- The Footlab model makes Tanzania the favourite at 50%, against 30% for a draw and 20% for Guinea-Bissau.
- Where and when is Tanzania vs Guinea-Bissau played?
- Tanzania vs Guinea-Bissau is played on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Gombani Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.