Mauritania vs Central African Republic: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 1Kick-off on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya, Nouakchott
The Footlab model makes Mauritania the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Central African Republic. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mauritania vs Central African Republic?
Mauritania starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (1,479 vs 1,352).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mauritania have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Central African Republic have 1, 5 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Niger(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Angola(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Kuwait(home) | 0-2 | Arab Cup |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Libya(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Angola(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Togo(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Chad(away) | 3-2 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Ghana(home) | 0-5 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Comoros(home) | 0-2 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 Mauritania win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Central African Republic win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2025 | Central African Republic 0-1 Mauritania | African Nations Championship |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Mauritania 2-1 Central African Republic | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2021 | Central African Republic 0-1 Mauritania | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 19, 2019 | Mauritania 2-0 Central African Republic | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Central African Republic vs Mauritania on Aug 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Mauritania score 0.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Central African Republic score 0.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauritania | 0.5 | 0.8 | 8 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
| Central African Republic | 0.6 | 1.9 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mauritania sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (7 points from 6 matches) and Central African Republic sit 4th (3 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mauritania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Central African Republic | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mauritania vs Central African Republic?
- The Footlab model makes Mauritania the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Central African Republic.
- Where and when is Mauritania vs Central African Republic played?
- Mauritania vs Central African Republic is played on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.