Congo DR vs Equatorial Guinea: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 1Kick-off on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte, Kinshasa
The Footlab model makes Congo DR the favourite at 58%, against 26% for a draw and 16% for Equatorial Guinea. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Congo DR vs Equatorial Guinea?
Congo DR starts as the favourite with a 187-point Elo edge (1,685 vs 1,498).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Congo DR have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Equatorial Guinea have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Uzbekistan(home) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Colombia(away) | 0-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Portugal(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Chile(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Denmark(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Comoros(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Madagascar(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Kyrgyzstan(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Algeria(home) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Sudan(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Congo DR win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Equatorial Guinea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2015 | Congo DR 0-0 Equatorial Guinea | Africa Cup of Nations |
Last archived meeting: Congo DR vs Equatorial Guinea on Feb 7, 2015
How many goals should we expect?
Congo DR score 1.2 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Equatorial Guinea score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congo DR | 1.2 | 0.5 | 8 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 0.9 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Congo DR sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (12 points from 6 matches) and Equatorial Guinea sit 2nd (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Congo DR | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Congo DR vs Equatorial Guinea?
- The Footlab model makes Congo DR the favourite at 58%, against 26% for a draw and 16% for Equatorial Guinea.
- Where and when is Congo DR vs Equatorial Guinea played?
- Congo DR vs Equatorial Guinea is played on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.