Ivory Coast vs Ghana: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 1Kick-off on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan
The Footlab model makes Ivory Coast the favourite at 56%, against 27% for a draw and 17% for Ghana. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ivory Coast vs Ghana?
Ivory Coast starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (1,741 vs 1,579).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ivory Coast have 11 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats; Ghana have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Curaçao(away) | 2-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Germany(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Ecuador(home) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Philadelphia Union II(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | France(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Croatia(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | England(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Panama(home) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Wales(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| May 23, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Ivory Coast win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Ghana win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2021 | Ghana 0-0 Ivory Coast | Friendlies |
| Oct 30, 2015 | Ivory Coast 1-0 Ghana | African Nations Championship |
| Oct 18, 2015 | Ghana 2-1 Ivory Coast | African Nations Championship |
| Feb 8, 2015 | Ivory Coast 0-0 Ghana | Africa Cup of Nations |
How many goals should we expect?
Ivory Coast score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ghana score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivory Coast | 1.9 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Ghana | 1.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ivory Coast sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (12 points from 6 matches) and Ghana sit 4th (3 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Ghana | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ivory Coast vs Ghana?
- The Footlab model makes Ivory Coast the favourite at 56%, against 27% for a draw and 17% for Ghana.
- Where and when is Ivory Coast vs Ghana played?
- Ivory Coast vs Ghana is played on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.