Tunisia vs Uganda: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 1Kick-off on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi, Radès
The Footlab model makes Tunisia the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Uganda. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tunisia vs Uganda?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Tunisia (1,640) and Uganda (1,560).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tunisia have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Uganda have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Netherlands(home) | 1-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Japan(home) | 0-4 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Sweden(away) | 1-5 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Belgium(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Austria(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025 | Nigeria(home) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Tanzania(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Tunisia(away) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Morocco(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Chad(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Tunisia win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Uganda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | Tunisia 3-1 Uganda | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Jan 4, 2017 | Tunisia 2-0 Uganda | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Tunisia score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Uganda score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Uganda | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tunisia sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (10 points from 6 matches) and Uganda sit 2nd (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tunisia | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 10 |
| 2 | Uganda | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tunisia vs Uganda?
- The Footlab model makes Tunisia the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Uganda.
- Where and when is Tunisia vs Uganda played?
- Tunisia vs Uganda is played on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.