Telstar vs Excelsior: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC)711 Stadion, Velsen-Zuid
The Footlab model makes Telstar the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Excelsior. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Telstar vs Excelsior?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Telstar (1,924) and Excelsior (1,931).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Telstar have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Excelsior have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(home) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Jul 31, 2026 | VfL Wolfsburg(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heracles(away) | 5-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Telstar win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Excelsior win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Excelsior 2-2 Telstar | Eredivisie |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Telstar 2-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Telstar 1-3 Excelsior | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Excelsior 3-2 Telstar | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 8, 2022 | Excelsior 1-4 Telstar | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 6, 2021 | Telstar 2-5 Excelsior | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Telstar score 1.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior score 2.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Excelsior | 2.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Telstar sit 13th in Eredivisie (3 points from 2 matches) and Excelsior sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Telstar vs Excelsior?
- The Footlab model makes Telstar the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Excelsior.
- Where and when is Telstar vs Excelsior played?
- Telstar vs Excelsior is played on May 23, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at 711 Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.