Excelsior vs Telstar: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
The Footlab model makes Excelsior the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Telstar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior vs Telstar?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Excelsior (1,931) and Telstar (1,924).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Telstar have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heracles(away) | 5-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(home) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Jul 31, 2026 | VfL Wolfsburg(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Excelsior win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Telstar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Excelsior 2-2 Telstar | Eredivisie |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Telstar 2-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Telstar 1-3 Excelsior | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Excelsior 3-2 Telstar | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 8, 2022 | Excelsior 1-4 Telstar | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 6, 2021 | Telstar 2-5 Excelsior | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior score 2.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Telstar score 1.9 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Telstar | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior sit 10th in Eredivisie (3 points from 2 matches) and Telstar sit 13th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs Telstar?
- The Footlab model makes Excelsior the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Telstar.
- Where and when is Excelsior vs Telstar played?
- Excelsior vs Telstar is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.