Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 6Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Libero Liberati, Terni
The Footlab model makes Ternana the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 18% for Montevarchi Calcio. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio?
Ternana starts as the favourite with a 168-point Elo edge (1,861 vs 1,693).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ternana have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Montevarchi Calcio have 5, 9 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Pianese(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pianese(home) | 1-3 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Bra(away) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Perugia(home) | 2-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Juventus U23(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Figline(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Prato(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Robur Siena(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Terranuova Traiana(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Ternana win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Montevarchi Calcio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2022 | Montevarchi Calcio 0-4 Ternana | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Montevarchi Calcio vs Ternana on Jul 23, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Ternana score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Montevarchi Calcio score 0.7 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ternana | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Montevarchi Calcio | 0.7 | 0.3 | 10 | 4/15 | 0/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Montevarchi Calcio | 34 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 28 | 32 | 46 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio?
- The Footlab model makes Ternana the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 18% for Montevarchi Calcio.
- Where and when is Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio played?
- Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Libero Liberati, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.