The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Park Hall Stadium, Oswestry / Croesoswallt, Shropshire
The Footlab model makes The New Saints the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Colwyn Bay. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay?
The New Saints starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (2,077 vs 1,882).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, The New Saints have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Colwyn Bay have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cardiff MET(away) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Briton Ferry(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Penybont(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Airbus UK(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trefelin(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bootle(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 The New Saints win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Colwyn Bay win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | The New Saints 0-2 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Colwyn Bay 0-2 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Jan 13, 2026 | The New Saints 1-0 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Colwyn Bay 1-1 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Dec 15, 2024 | The New Saints 4-1 Colwyn Bay | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 31, 2023 | The New Saints 6-1 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay on Mar 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
The New Saints score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Colwyn Bay score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New Saints | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Colwyn Bay | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The New Saints sit 2nd in Premier League (10 points from 4 matches) and Colwyn Bay sit 9th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | The New Saints | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Colwyn Bay | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay?
- The Footlab model makes The New Saints the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Colwyn Bay.
- Where and when is The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay played?
- The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay is played on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Park Hall Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.