Tienen vs Mandel United: prediction and stats
First Amateur DivisionVV - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Bergéstadion, Tirlemont
The Footlab model makes Mandel United the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Tienen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tienen vs Mandel United?
Mandel United starts as the favourite with a 189-point Elo edge (1,967 vs 1,778).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tienen have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Mandel United have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Hoogstraten(home) | 1-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Knokke(away) | 0-2 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Dessel Sport(home) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Spouwen-Mopertingen(away) | 2-0 | First Amateur Division |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Diegem Sport(home) | 5-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | VW Hamme(home) | 1-1 | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | HO Kalken(away) | 2-0 | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Mechelen II(away) | 2-1 | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Zulte Waregem II(home) | 2-2 | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Mar 14, 2026 | FC Lebbeke(away) | 0-0 | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 4 Tienen win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Mandel United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2023 | Mandel United 0-3 Tienen | First Amateur Division |
| Oct 16, 2022 | Tienen 2-0 Mandel United | First Amateur Division |
| Feb 5, 2022 | Mandel United 1-0 Tienen | First Amateur Division |
| Dec 5, 2021 | Tienen 2-1 Mandel United | First Amateur Division |
| Oct 11, 2020 | Tienen 1-0 Mandel United | First Amateur Division |
Last archived meeting: Mandel United vs Tienen on Mar 11, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Tienen score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mandel United score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tienen | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Mandel United | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Tienen | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tienen vs Mandel United?
- The Footlab model makes Mandel United the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Tienen.
- Where and when is Tienen vs Mandel United played?
- Tienen vs Mandel United is played on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Bergéstadion, in the First Amateur Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.