Tikveš vs Vardar Skopje: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gradski Stadion, Kavadarci
The Footlab model makes Vardar Skopje the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Tikveš. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tikveš vs Vardar Skopje?
Vardar Skopje starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,765 vs 1,622).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tikveš have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Vardar Skopje have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Skopje(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shkëndija Haraçinë(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bashkimi Kumanovo(away) | 5-0 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Aresimi(home) | 5-1 | First League |
| May 25, 2026 | FK Rabotnicki(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Struga(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shkendija(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Riga(away) | 2-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bregalnica Štip(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Riga(home) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Tikveš win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Vardar Skopje win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vardar Skopje 7-0 Tikveš | First League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Vardar Skopje 3-1 Tikveš | First League |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Tikveš 1-2 Vardar Skopje | First League |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Vardar Skopje 2-2 Tikveš | First League |
| Dec 3, 2024 | Vardar Skopje 1-1 Tikveš | First League |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Vardar Skopje 2-0 Tikveš | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Vardar Skopje vs Tikveš on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tikveš score 2.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Vardar Skopje score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tikveš | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Vardar Skopje | 2.1 | 1.1 | 8 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tikveš sit 3rd in First League (7 points from 4 matches) and Vardar Skopje sit 8th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tikveš | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Vardar Skopje | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tikveš vs Vardar Skopje?
- The Footlab model makes Vardar Skopje the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Tikveš.
- Where and when is Tikveš vs Vardar Skopje played?
- Tikveš vs Vardar Skopje is played on August 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski Stadion, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.