Tokyo Verdy vs Gamba Osaka: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu
The Footlab model makes Gamba Osaka the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Tokyo Verdy. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tokyo Verdy vs Gamba Osaka?
Gamba Osaka starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (2,024 vs 1,872).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tokyo Verdy have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Gamba Osaka have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(home) | 4-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(away) | 0-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol(home) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 2-4 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gangwon FC(away) | 1-0 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 4-3 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Tokyo Verdy win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Gamba Osaka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy 2-4 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| May 30, 2026 | Gamba Osaka 1-1 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Gamba Osaka 4-1 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Tokyo Verdy 0-1 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Gamba Osaka 1-1 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| May 15, 2024 | Tokyo Verdy 0-0 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Tokyo Verdy vs Gamba Osaka on Jun 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tokyo Verdy score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Gamba Osaka score 1.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy | 1.1 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Gamba Osaka | 1.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tokyo Verdy sit 17th in J1 League (2 points from 3 matches) and Gamba Osaka sit 10th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gamba Osaka | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 17 | Tokyo Verdy | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tokyo Verdy vs Gamba Osaka?
- The Footlab model makes Gamba Osaka the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Tokyo Verdy.
- Where and when is Tokyo Verdy vs Gamba Osaka played?
- Tokyo Verdy vs Gamba Osaka is played on April 10, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 9, 2027Cerezo OsakavsAvispa Fukuoka
- Apr 10, 2027Shimizu S-pulsevsMito Hollyhock
- Apr 10, 2027UrawavsKashiwa Reysol
- Apr 10, 2027Nagoya GrampusvsKashima
- Apr 10, 2027FC TokyovsFagiano Okayama
- Apr 10, 2027Kawasaki FrontalevsV-varen Nagasaki
- Apr 10, 2027Yokohama F. MarinosvsSanfrecce Hiroshima
- Apr 10, 2027JEF United ChibavsKyoto Sanga