FC Tokyo vs Fagiano Okayama: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu
The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Fagiano Okayama. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Tokyo vs Fagiano Okayama?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate FC Tokyo (2,003) and Fagiano Okayama (1,938).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Tokyo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Fagiano Okayama have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano(home) | 6-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Beluga Rosso Iwami(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(home) | 0-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 FC Tokyo win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Fagiano Okayama win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | FC Tokyo 3-1 Fagiano Okayama | J1 League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Fagiano Okayama 1-0 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: FC Tokyo vs Fagiano Okayama on Oct 25, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
FC Tokyo score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Fagiano Okayama score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Fagiano Okayama | 1.4 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Tokyo sit 11th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Fagiano Okayama sit 9th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Tokyo vs Fagiano Okayama?
- The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Fagiano Okayama.
- Where and when is FC Tokyo vs Fagiano Okayama played?
- FC Tokyo vs Fagiano Okayama is played on April 10, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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- Apr 10, 2027Kawasaki FrontalevsV-varen Nagasaki
- Apr 10, 2027Yokohama F. MarinosvsSanfrecce Hiroshima
- Apr 10, 2027JEF United ChibavsKyoto Sanga
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