Nagoya Grampus vs Kashima: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Toyota Stadium, Toyota
The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Nagoya Grampus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Kashima?
Kashima starts as the favourite with a 206-point Elo edge (2,160 vs 1,953).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nagoya Grampus have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Kashima have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Gainare Tottori(home) | 1-3 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Consadole Sapporo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Suzuka Unlimited(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(home) | 3-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Vegalta Sendai(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Nagoya Grampus win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Kashima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kashima 2-1 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Nagoya Grampus 0-4 Kashima | J1 League |
| Apr 25, 2025 | Kashima 1-0 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Kashima 0-0 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Feb 23, 2024 | Nagoya Grampus 0-3 Kashima | J1 League |
| Sep 10, 2023 | Kashima 1-2 Nagoya Grampus | J-League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Kashima vs Nagoya Grampus on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Kashima score 2.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Kashima | 2.0 | 1.0 | 8 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nagoya Grampus sit 13th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Kashima sit 3rd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kashima | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 9 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nagoya Grampus vs Kashima?
- The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Nagoya Grampus.
- Where and when is Nagoya Grampus vs Kashima played?
- Nagoya Grampus vs Kashima is played on April 10, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Toyota Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 9, 2027Cerezo OsakavsAvispa Fukuoka
- Apr 10, 2027Shimizu S-pulsevsMito Hollyhock
- Apr 10, 2027UrawavsKashiwa Reysol
- Apr 10, 2027FC TokyovsFagiano Okayama
- Apr 10, 2027Kawasaki FrontalevsV-varen Nagasaki
- Apr 10, 2027Yokohama F. MarinosvsSanfrecce Hiroshima
- Apr 10, 2027JEF United ChibavsKyoto Sanga
- Apr 10, 2027Machida ZelviavsVissel Kobe