Tona vs Vilassar Mar: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Tona, Tona
The Footlab AI model makes Tona the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Vilassar Mar. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tona vs Vilassar Mar?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Tona (1,735) and Vilassar Mar (1,652).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tona vs Vilassar Mar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tona
Not enough data to predict the Tona lineup.
Vilassar Mar
Not enough data to predict the Vilassar Mar lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:22 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tona have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Vilassar Mar have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Grama(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Badalona(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Pobla Mafumet(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Peralada(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | L'Escala(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Europa II(home) | 1-6 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Grama(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Badalona(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tona wins, 1 draw, 2 Vilassar Mar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Vilassar Mar 3-1 Tona | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Tona 2-0 Vilassar Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Tona 2-0 Vilassar Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Vilassar Mar 0-3 Tona | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 11, 2024 | Vilassar Mar 2-0 Tona | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Tona 1-1 Vilassar Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
How many goals should we expect?
Tona score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Vilassar Mar score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tona | 0.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Vilassar Mar | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tona sit 16th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 (6 points from 6 matches) and Vilassar Mar sit 18th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Tona | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 6 |
| 18 | Vilassar Mar | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 4 |
A question about Tona vs Vilassar Mar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tona vs Vilassar Mar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tona the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Vilassar Mar.
- Where and when is Tona vs Vilassar Mar played?
- Tona vs Vilassar Mar is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Tona, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.