Vilassar Mar vs Vilanova: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon, Vilassar de Mar
The Footlab AI model makes Vilanova the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Vilassar Mar. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vilassar Mar vs Vilanova?
Vilanova starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (1,743 vs 1,584).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Vilassar Mar vs Vilanova
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Vilassar Mar
Not enough data to predict the Vilassar Mar lineup.
Vilanova
Not enough data to predict the Vilanova lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:04 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vilassar Mar have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Vilanova have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | L'Escala(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Europa II(home) | 1-6 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Grama(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Badalona(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Badalona(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Pobla Mafumet(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Peralada(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mollerussa(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | L'Hospitalet(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Vilassar Mar win, 0 draws, 1 Vilanova win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Vilassar Mar 1-0 Vilanova | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Vilanova 2-0 Vilassar Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
Last archived meeting: Vilassar Mar vs Vilanova on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vilassar Mar score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Vilanova score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vilassar Mar | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Vilanova | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vilassar Mar sit 18th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 (4 points from 6 matches) and Vilanova sit 5th (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Vilanova | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| 18 | Vilassar Mar | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 4 |
A question about Vilassar Mar vs Vilanova?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vilassar Mar vs Vilanova?
- The Footlab AI model makes Vilanova the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Vilassar Mar.
- Where and when is Vilassar Mar vs Vilanova played?
- Vilassar Mar vs Vilanova is played on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.