Tondela vs Benfica B: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela
The Footlab model makes Tondela the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Benfica B. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tondela vs Benfica B?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Tondela (1,935) and Benfica B (1,949).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tondela have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Benfica B have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Academica(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Leixoes(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Tondela win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Benfica B win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2025 | Tondela 3-1 Benfica B | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Tondela 2-1 Benfica B | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Benfica B 1-3 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Tondela 1-0 Benfica B | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Tondela 1-1 Benfica B | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 17, 2023 | Benfica B 1-1 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Tondela score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica B score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Benfica B | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tondela sit 12th in Segunda Liga (3 points from 3 matches) and Benfica B sit 5th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Benfica B | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Tondela | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tondela vs Benfica B?
- The Footlab model makes Tondela the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Benfica B.
- Where and when is Tondela vs Benfica B played?
- Tondela vs Benfica B is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio João Cardoso, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.