Leixoes vs Farense: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaMatchday 15Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Mar, Matosinhos
The Footlab AI model makes Farense the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Leixoes. The most likely score is 1-1. If Farense wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 6,203 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leixoes vs Farense?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Leixoes (1,967) and Farense (1,987).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leixoes vs Farense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leixoes
4-4-2- 35B. Rochez
- 7Salvador Agra
- 22Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo
- 10Rafael Barbosa
- 80João Assunção
- 8Miguel Sousa
- 4Matheus Costa
- 30Serif Nhaga
- 77Paulinho
- 3Lourenço Henriques
- 51I. Stefanović
Farense
4-3-3- 7João Resende
- 17André Candeias
- 11Nélson Oliveira
- 10S. Singh
- 29Cláudio Falcão
- 27Mattheus Oliveira
- 37Gonçalo Silva
- 44N. Zolotić
- 78Alex Pinto
- 6Derick Poloni
- 97F. Buntić
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 08:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leixoes have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Farense have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 3-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Academica(away) | 0-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Vianense(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 2-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Penafiel(home) | 1-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 3-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Leixoes wins, 0 draws, 3 Farense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Farense 1-2 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Leixoes 0-2 Farense | Segunda Liga |
| Mar 5, 2023 | Farense 1-0 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 9, 2022 | Leixoes 3-1 Farense | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 11, 2022 | Leixoes 0-1 Farense | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 17, 2022 | Farense 0-1 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Leixoes score 1.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Farense score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes | 1.9 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Farense | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leixoes sit 12th in Segunda Liga (11 points from 10 matches) and Farense sit 8th (15 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Farense | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 15 |
| 12 | Leixoes | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 17 | 11 |
A question about Leixoes vs Farense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leixoes vs Farense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Farense the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Leixoes.
- Where and when is Leixoes vs Farense played?
- Leixoes vs Farense is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Mar, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.