Vizela vs Penafiel: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Do Vizela, Caldas de Vizela
The Footlab model makes Penafiel the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Vizela. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vizela vs Penafiel?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Vizela (1,899) and Penafiel (1,859).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vizela have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Penafiel have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 0-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | União de Leiria(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Vizela win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Penafiel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Penafiel 0-1 Vizela | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Vizela 1-3 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Penafiel 1-1 Vizela | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Vizela 1-2 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 15, 2022 | Penafiel 3-3 Vizela | Taça de Portugal |
| Jul 30, 2022 | Penafiel 2-0 Vizela | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Vizela score 0.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Penafiel score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vizela | 0.7 | 1.2 | 7 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Penafiel | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vizela sit 7th in Segunda Liga (4 points from 3 matches) and Penafiel sit 14th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Vizela | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Penafiel | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vizela vs Penafiel?
- The Footlab model makes Penafiel the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Vizela.
- Where and when is Vizela vs Penafiel played?
- Vizela vs Penafiel is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Do Vizela, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.