Torrijos vs Noblejas: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Francisco, Torrijos
The Footlab model makes Torrijos the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Noblejas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Torrijos vs Noblejas?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Torrijos (1,682) and Noblejas (1,589).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Torrijos have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Noblejas have 0, 4 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2024 | San Clemente(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 5, 2024 | Albacete II(away) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 1, 2024 | Marchamalo(home) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Huracán Balazote(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Conquense(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2025 | Marchamalo(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 4, 2025 | Cazalegas(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Quintanar del Rey(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Manchego(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Villarrobledo(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
How many goals should we expect?
Torrijos score 0.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Noblejas score 0.9 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrijos | 0.8 | 1.3 | 6 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Noblejas | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Torrijos vs Noblejas?
- The Footlab model makes Torrijos the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Noblejas.
- Where and when is Torrijos vs Noblejas played?
- Torrijos vs Noblejas is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Francisco, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.