Match

Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain: prediction and stats

Ligue 1Regular Season - 13Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

ToulouseParis Saint Germain

The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Toulouse. The most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,905 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?

Paris Saint Germain is a heavy favourite: 2,372 Elo points against 2,042, a 330-point gap.

17%20%63%
Toulouse winDrawParis Saint Germain win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Toulouse

4-2-3-1
  1. 13J. Russell-Rowe
  1. 23C. Cásseres
  2. 8T. Jørgensen
  3. 20C. Tengstedt
  4. 14N. Sigur
  5. 37Y. Azizi
  1. 12C. Tapé
  2. 3M. McKenzie
  3. 22R. Messali
  4. 2R. Nicolaisen
  1. 16G. Restes

Paris Saint Germain

4-3-3
  1. 7K. Kvaratskhelia
  2. 11M. Akliouche
  3. 9Ferran Torres
  1. 87João Neves
  2. 4Beraldo
  3. 27Pedro Fernández
  1. 21L. Hernández
  2. 33W. Zaïre-Emery
  3. 2A. Hakimi
  4. 6I. Zabarnyi
  1. 39M. Safonov

Computed on October 21, 2026 at 02:46 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toulouse have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Paris Saint Germain have 8, 4 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Toulouse
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 16, 2026Le Mans(away)3-0Ligue 1
Oct 10, 2026Monaco(away)2-2Ligue 1
Oct 3, 2026PAU(home)2-3Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026Le Havre(home)3-2Ligue 1
Sep 12, 2026Lorient(away)2-2Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 20, 2026Barcelona(home)4-2UEFA Champions League
Oct 17, 2026Strasbourg(away)3-1Ligue 1
Oct 14, 2026Manchester City(away)4-2UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026Le Mans(home)3-1Ligue 1
Sep 20, 2026Marseille(away)2-1Ligue 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Toulouse win, 0 draws, 5 Paris Saint Germain wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 3, 2026Paris Saint Germain 3-1 ToulouseLigue 1
Aug 30, 2025Toulouse 3-6 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
Feb 15, 2025Toulouse 0-1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
Nov 22, 2024Paris Saint Germain 3-0 ToulouseLigue 1
May 12, 2024Paris Saint Germain 1-3 ToulouseLigue 1
Jan 3, 2024Paris Saint Germain 2-0 ToulouseTrophée des Champions

Last archived meeting: Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse on Apr 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Toulouse score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Paris Saint Germain score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Toulouse1.71.7112/1512/15
Paris Saint Germain2.11.4112/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Toulouse sit 11th in Ligue 1 (9 points from 7 matches) and Paris Saint Germain sit 2nd (14 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Paris Saint Germain742114914
11Toulouse723212119

A question about Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Toulouse.
Where and when is Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain played?
Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium de Toulouse, in the Ligue 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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