TSV Hartberg vs Ried: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 5Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)PROfertil ARENA, Hartberg
The Footlab model makes Ried the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for TSV Hartberg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate TSV Hartberg (1,948) and Ried (1,916).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, TSV Hartberg have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Ried have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SCR Altach(away) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Austria Vienna(home) | 0-2 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sturm Graz(home) | 0-2 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 0-1 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Imst(away) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Grazer AK(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Lask Linz(away) | 1-4 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(home) | 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(away) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Dornbirn(away) | 5-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 TSV Hartberg win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Ried win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried | Bundesliga |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Ried 0-2 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| May 27, 2023 | TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried | Bundesliga |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Ried 1-3 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Ried 0-1 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| Aug 27, 2022 | TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried | Bundesliga |
How many goals should we expect?
TSV Hartberg score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ried score 1.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSV Hartberg | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Ried | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
TSV Hartberg sit 10th in Bundesliga (3 points from 4 matches) and Ried sit 7th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ried | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 10 | TSV Hartberg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
- The Footlab model makes Ried the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for TSV Hartberg.
- Where and when is TSV Hartberg vs Ried played?
- TSV Hartberg vs Ried is played on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at PROfertil ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.