Tukums II vs Riga FC II: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions, Tukums
The Footlab model makes Riga FC II the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Tukums II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tukums II vs Riga FC II?
Riga FC II starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,408 vs 1,261).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tukums II have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Riga FC II have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Riga Mariners(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 3, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Metta / LU(away) | 0-9 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 2-0 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Riga FC II(away) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Riga Mariners(home) | 1-3 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(away) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Metta / LU(home) | 2-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 0-3 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Super Nova 2(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tukums II win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Riga FC II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Riga FC II 2-0 Tukums II | 1. Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Tukums II 2-1 Riga FC II | 1. Liga |
| Jul 7, 2025 | Riga FC II 1-0 Tukums II | 1. Liga |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Riga FC II 9-0 Tukums II | 1. Liga |
| May 26, 2024 | Tukums II 0-7 Riga FC II | 1. Liga |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Tukums II 0-3 Riga FC II | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Riga FC II vs Tukums II on Jul 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tukums II score 1.3 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Riga FC II score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums II | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Riga FC II | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tukums II sit 11th in 1. Liga (8 points from 10 matches) and Riga FC II sit 9th (10 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Riga FC II | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 10 |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 33 | 20 |
| 10 | Tukums II | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 45 | 12 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tukums II vs Riga FC II?
- The Footlab model makes Riga FC II the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Tukums II.
- Where and when is Tukums II vs Riga FC II played?
- Tukums II vs Riga FC II is played on October 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.