Smiltene vs Mārupe: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Tepera stadions, Smiltene
The Footlab AI model makes Mārupe the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Smiltene. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mārupe wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Smiltene vs Mārupe?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Smiltene (1,322) and Mārupe (1,414).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Smiltene vs Mārupe
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Smiltene
Not enough data to predict the Smiltene lineup.
Mārupe
Not enough data to predict the Mārupe lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:10 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Smiltene have 6 wins, 0 draws and 9 defeats; Mārupe have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 3-2 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Super Nova 2(away) | 2-0 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Riga Mariners(home) | 4-1 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(away) | 2-3 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Metta / LU(home) | 0-6 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(away) | 3-2 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Riga FC II(home) | 0-0 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 5-0 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(home) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Smiltene win, 1 draw, 4 Mārupe wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Mārupe 2-1 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Mārupe 0-3 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Smiltene 1-2 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Mārupe 0-0 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Mārupe 3-1 Smiltene | Cup |
| Jun 15, 2024 | Smiltene 0-1 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Smiltene score 1.9 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; Mārupe score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smiltene | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Mārupe | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Smiltene sit 10th in 1. Liga (19 points from 22 matches) and Mārupe sit 6th (32 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mārupe | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 34 | 32 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 32 | 59 | 19 |
A question about Smiltene vs Mārupe?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Smiltene vs Mārupe?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mārupe the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Smiltene.
- Where and when is Smiltene vs Mārupe played?
- Smiltene vs Mārupe is played on October 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Tepera stadions, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.