Smiltene vs Mārupe: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Tepera stadions, Smiltene
The Footlab model makes Mārupe the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Smiltene. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Smiltene vs Mārupe?
Mārupe starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (1,386 vs 1,252).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Smiltene have 3 wins, 1 draws and 11 defeats; Mārupe have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(home) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 3-5 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(home) | 1-0 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Super Nova 2(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(home) | 0-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Skanste(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Smiltene win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Mārupe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Mārupe 2-1 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Mārupe 0-3 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Smiltene 1-2 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Mārupe 0-0 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Mārupe 3-1 Smiltene | Cup |
| Jun 15, 2024 | Smiltene 0-1 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Smiltene score 1.4 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Mārupe score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smiltene | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Mārupe | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Smiltene sit 13th in 1. Liga (4 points from 10 matches) and Mārupe sit 6th (16 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mārupe | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 30 | 25 |
| 13 | Smiltene | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 4 |
| 13 | Smiltene | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Smiltene vs Mārupe?
- The Footlab model makes Mārupe the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Smiltene.
- Where and when is Smiltene vs Mārupe played?
- Smiltene vs Mārupe is played on October 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Tepera stadions, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.