Tukums vs Riga: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions, Tukums
The Footlab model makes Riga the favourite at 81%, against 12% for a draw and 7% for Tukums. The most likely score is 0-3.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tukums vs Riga?
Riga is a heavy favourite: 2,028 Elo points against 1,507 — a 521-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tukums have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Riga have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-3 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rīgas FS(away) | 3-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 20, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Metta / LU(home) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Gyori ETO FC(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 4-1 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Tukums win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Riga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Riga 3-1 Tukums | Virsliga |
| May 20, 2026 | Tukums 1-3 Riga | Virsliga |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Riga 3-3 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Riga 0-0 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Tukums 0-1 Riga | Virsliga |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Riga 4-0 Tukums | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Tukums score 1.1 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Riga score 2.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 80% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Riga | 2.4 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tukums sit 9th in Virsliga (20 points from 27 matches) and Riga sit 2nd (65 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Riga | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 79 | 24 | 65 |
| 9 | Tukums | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 40 | 54 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tukums vs Riga?
- The Footlab model makes Riga the favourite at 81%, against 12% for a draw and 7% for Tukums.
- Where and when is Tukums vs Riga played?
- Tukums vs Riga is played on October 10, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 80% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.