TuS Geretsried vs Erlbach: prediction and stats
Oberliga - Bayern SüdBayern Süd - 31Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Isaraustadion, Geretsried
The Footlab AI model makes Erlbach the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for TuS Geretsried. The most likely score is 1-1. If Erlbach wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win TuS Geretsried vs Erlbach?
Erlbach starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (1,837 vs 1,687).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for TuS Geretsried vs Erlbach
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
TuS Geretsried
Not enough data to predict the TuS Geretsried lineup.
Erlbach
Not enough data to predict the Erlbach lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:58 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, TuS Geretsried have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Erlbach have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Erlbach(away) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Kirchanschöring(home) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Gundelfingen(away) | 0-0 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Sep 19, 2026 | 1880 Wasserburg(home) | 0-3 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Deisenhofen(away) | 0-4 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | TuS Geretsried(home) | 3-1 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Heimstetten(away) | 0-0 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Pipinsried(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 1860 München II(away) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Kottern(home) | 3-0 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 TuS Geretsried win, 0 draws, 2 Erlbach wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Erlbach 3-1 TuS Geretsried | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Erlbach 1-2 TuS Geretsried | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Sep 27, 2025 | TuS Geretsried 1-2 Erlbach | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
Last archived meeting: Erlbach vs TuS Geretsried on Oct 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
TuS Geretsried score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Erlbach score 1.3 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TuS Geretsried | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Erlbach | 1.3 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
TuS Geretsried sit 11th in Oberliga - Bayern Süd (45 points from 34 matches) and Erlbach sit 5th (53 points from 32 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ErlbachBayernliga Sud | 32 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 42 | 35 | 53 |
| 11 | TuS GeretsriedBayernliga South | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
A question about TuS Geretsried vs Erlbach?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for TuS Geretsried vs Erlbach?
- The Footlab AI model makes Erlbach the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for TuS Geretsried.
- Where and when is TuS Geretsried vs Erlbach played?
- TuS Geretsried vs Erlbach is played on May 1, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Isaraustadion, in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 30, 20271860 München IIvsKottern
- Apr 30, 2027Hankofen-HailingvsDeisenhofen
- Apr 30, 2027HeimstettenvsIsmaning
- Apr 30, 2027Sportfreunde SchwaigvsLandshut
- May 1, 2027Schalding-HeiningvsGundelfingen
- May 1, 2027Pipinsriedvs1860 Rosenheim
- May 1, 2027Pfaffenhofenvs1880 Wasserburg
- May 2, 2027SchwabmünchenvsKirchanschöring