Twente vs PSV Eindhoven: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC)De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
The Footlab model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Twente. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Twente vs PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (2,214 vs 2,071).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Twente have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; PSV Eindhoven have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Qarabag(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dunajska Streda(away) | 3-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Heerenveen(away) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Dunajska Streda(home) | 6-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 0-4 | Super Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Twente win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 PSV Eindhoven win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Twente | Eredivisie |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Twente 0-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Twente 1-3 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Dec 6, 2024 | PSV Eindhoven 6-1 Twente | Eredivisie |
| Mar 17, 2024 | PSV Eindhoven 1-0 Twente | Eredivisie |
| Jan 17, 2024 | PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Twente | KNVB Beker |
Last archived meeting: PSV Eindhoven vs Twente on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Twente score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; PSV Eindhoven score 3.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Twente sit 12th in Eredivisie (3 points from 2 matches) and PSV Eindhoven sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 12 | Twente | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Twente vs PSV Eindhoven?
- The Footlab model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Twente.
- Where and when is Twente vs PSV Eindhoven played?
- Twente vs PSV Eindhoven is played on September 20, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC) at De Grolsch Veste, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.