Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
The Footlab model makes Sparta Rotterdam the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Heerenveen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Sparta Rotterdam (1,926) and Heerenveen (2,009).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sparta Rotterdam have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Heerenveen have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Telstar(away) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Feyenoord(home) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | MSV Duisburg(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Asteras Tripolis(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Zulte Waregem(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Twente(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Volos NFC(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | OH Leuven(home) | 4-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Club Brugge KV(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sparta Rotterdam win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Heerenveen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Heerenveen 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam 0-3 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Heerenveen 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| May 19, 2024 | Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Heerenveen 1-3 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sparta Rotterdam score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Heerenveen score 2.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.3 | 1.6 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Heerenveen | 2.3 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sparta Rotterdam sit 12th in Eredivisie (3 points from 2 matches) and Heerenveen sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Heerenveen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
- The Footlab model makes Sparta Rotterdam the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Heerenveen.
- Where and when is Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen played?
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen is played on September 18, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.