AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Telstar. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
AZ Alkmaar starts as the favourite with a 229-point Elo edge (2,155 vs 1,926).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AZ Alkmaar have 8 wins, 7 draws and 0 defeats; Telstar have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 4-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Genk(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(home) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Jul 31, 2026 | VfL Wolfsburg(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 AZ Alkmaar win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Telstar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Telstar | KNVB Beker |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Telstar 0-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Oct 5, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Telstar | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
AZ Alkmaar score 2.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Telstar score 1.9 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Telstar | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AZ Alkmaar sit 1st in Eredivisie (6 points from 2 matches) and Telstar sit 13th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 13 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
- The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Telstar.
- Where and when is AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar played?
- AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar is played on September 20, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.