Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek: prediction and stats
Liga AlefNorth - 27Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)HaShalom Stadium, Umm al-Fahm
The Footlab model makes Hapoel Migdal HaEmek the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm (1,657) and Hapoel Migdal HaEmek (1,710).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Hapoel Migdal HaEmek have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(home) | 1-2 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed(away) | 2-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya(home) | 1-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek(away) | 1-3 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba(home) | 3-0 | Liga Alef |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Tzeirey Tamra(away) | 2-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Ironi Nesher(home) | 3-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth(away) | 2-4 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm(home) | 3-1 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 3-1 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 0-0 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | Liga Alef |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 3-1 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| May 3, 2024 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 1-1 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 2-2 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | Liga Alef |
Last archived meeting: Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm on Feb 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Hapoel Migdal HaEmek score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 1.8 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm sit 10th in Liga Alef (30 points from 22 matches) and Hapoel Migdal HaEmek sit 8th (31 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 23 | 31 |
| 10 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 25 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek?
- The Footlab model makes Hapoel Migdal HaEmek the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm.
- Where and when is Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek played?
- Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Migdal HaEmek is played on March 6, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at HaShalom Stadium, in the Liga Alef.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 6, 2027Hapoel Nazareth IllitvsTira
- Mar 6, 2027Hapoel Umm al-FahmvsHapoel Ironi Arraba
- Mar 6, 2027Ironi NeshervsHapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt
- Mar 6, 2027Hapoel Tirat HaCarmelvsMaccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
- Mar 6, 2027Ironi Baka El GarbiyavsHapoel Ironi Karmiel
- Mar 6, 2027Maccabi Neve Sha'ananvsHapoel Bnei Musmus
- Mar 6, 2027Hapoel Beit SheanvsMaccabi K. Ata Bialik
- Mar 6, 2027Tzeirey TamravsBeitar Nahariya