Match

UD Logroñés vs Lugo: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 22Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas, Logroño

UD LogroñésLugo

The Footlab AI model makes UD Logroñés the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Lugo. The most likely score is 1-1. If UD Logroñés wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win UD Logroñés vs Lugo?

UD Logroñés starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (2,047 vs 1,945).

53%26%21%
UD Logroñés winDrawLugo win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for UD Logroñés vs Lugo

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

UD Logroñés

4-3-3
  1. 21Ismael Santana
  2. 11Marcos Baselga
  3. 19I. Asenjo
  1. 14David Navarro
  2. 20Anai Morales
  3. 6Mario Maroto
  1. 3Sergio Camacho
  2. 5A. Alvarez
  3. 4Eduardo Cabetas
  4. 22Carlos García-Die
  1. 13Fermín Sobrón

Lugo

4-3-3
  1. 17Chiqui
  2. 11M. Dauda
  3. 16A. Palma
  1. 20A. Ulloa
  2. 15P. Parrilla
  3. 6Kevin Presa
  1. 5Pol Moreno
  2. 19R. Lucero
  3. 4Ibaider Garriz
  4. 3Pere Haro
  1. 1Marc Martínez

Computed on October 14, 2026 at 10:51 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Logroñés have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Lugo have 10, 2 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

UD Logroñés
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 12, 2026Lugo(away)1-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 4, 2026Deportivo La Coruña II(home)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026Mérida AD(away)5-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 18, 2026Pontevedra(home)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 12, 2026UD Ourense(away)3-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Lugo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 12, 2026UD Logroñés(home)3-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 2, 2026Real Avilés(away)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 26, 2026Racing Ferrol(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 20, 2026Zamora(away)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 13, 2026CD Coria(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 0 UD Logroñés wins, 1 draw, 2 Lugo wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 12, 2026Lugo 3-1 UD LogroñésPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Feb 21, 2021Lugo 1-1 UD LogroñésSegunda División
Oct 24, 2020UD Logroñés 2-3 LugoSegunda División

Last archived meeting: Lugo vs UD Logroñés on Oct 12, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

UD Logroñés score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lugo score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
UD Logroñés2.10.969/1510/15
Lugo1.30.876/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

UD Logroñés sit 1st in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (16 points from 6 matches) and Lugo sit 2nd (16 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1UD Logroñés651015716
2Lugo65109316

A question about UD Logroñés vs Lugo?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for UD Logroñés vs Lugo?
The Footlab AI model makes UD Logroñés the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Lugo.
Where and when is UD Logroñés vs Lugo played?
UD Logroñés vs Lugo is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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