Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 22Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Toralín, Ponferrada
The Footlab model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for Racing Ferrol. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol?
Ponferradina starts as the favourite with a 137-point Elo edge (1,969 vs 1,832).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ponferradina have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Racing Ferrol have 2, 8 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Real Madrid II(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(away) | 1-4 | Primera División RFEF - Play Offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Madrid II(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(away) | 2-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Osasuna II(home) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Arenas Getxo(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Ponferradina win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Racing Ferrol win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Ponferradina 3-0 Racing Ferrol | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Racing Ferrol 2-1 Ponferradina | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Jul 26, 2023 | Ponferradina 0-2 Racing Ferrol | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2022 | Ponferradina 2-1 Racing Ferrol | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2022 | Racing Ferrol 1-2 Ponferradina | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ponferradina score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Racing Ferrol score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina | 1.1 | 1.3 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Racing Ferrol | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ponferradina sit 4th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (60 points from 38 matches) and Racing Ferrol sit 12th (49 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ponferradina | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 43 | 33 | 60 |
| 12 | Racing Ferrol | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 41 | 47 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol?
- The Footlab model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for Racing Ferrol.
- Where and when is Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol played?
- Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Toralín, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.