Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 22Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Toralín, Ponferrada
The Footlab AI model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 37%, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Racing Ferrol. The most likely score is 0-0. If Ponferradina wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 3,127 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Ponferradina (1,983) and Racing Ferrol (1,911).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ponferradina
4-3-3- 10Borja Valle
- 7C. Calderon
- 11Quicala Bari
- 6Fede San Emeterio
- 15O. Vacas
- 8Arturo Molina
- 4A. Jelbat
- 3Sergio Nieto
- 24Koke
- 2David Andújar
- 1Álex Domínguez
Racing Ferrol
4-3-3- 10Dani Ojeda
- 18E. Eto'o Pineda
- 19Roberto Arroyo
- 6Fabio González
- 14Jesús Bernal
- 16Raúl Blanco
- 4Germán Novoa
- 5Eric Monjonell
- 2Migue Leal
- 17Álvaro Ramón
- 1Lucas Díaz
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 12:02 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ponferradina have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Racing Ferrol have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Zamora(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruña II(away) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pontevedra(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Lugo(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Barakaldo(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Ponferradina wins, 0 draws, 2 Racing Ferrol wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Ponferradina 3-0 Racing Ferrol | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Racing Ferrol 2-1 Ponferradina | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Jul 26, 2023 | Ponferradina 0-2 Racing Ferrol | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2022 | Ponferradina 2-1 Racing Ferrol | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2022 | Racing Ferrol 1-2 Ponferradina | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ponferradina score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Racing Ferrol score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina | 0.9 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Racing Ferrol | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ponferradina sit 9th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (12 points from 8 matches) and Racing Ferrol sit 3rd (16 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 16 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
A question about Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 37%, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Racing Ferrol.
- Where and when is Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol played?
- Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Toralín, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.