Match

UD Logroñés vs Mérida AD: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 24Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas, Logroño

UD LogroñésMérida AD

The Footlab AI model makes UD Logroñés the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Mérida AD. The most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win UD Logroñés vs Mérida AD?

UD Logroñés starts as the favourite with a 187-point Elo edge (2,072 vs 1,885).

62%23%15%
UD Logroñés winDrawMérida AD win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for UD Logroñés vs Mérida AD

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

UD Logroñés

4-3-3
  1. 21Ismael Santana
  2. 11Marcos Baselga
  3. 19I. Asenjo
  1. 14David Navarro
  2. 20Anai Morales
  3. 6Mario Maroto
  1. 3Sergio Camacho
  2. 5A. Alvarez
  3. 4Eduardo Cabetas
  4. 22Carlos García-Die
  1. 13Fermín Sobrón

Mérida AD

4-3-3
  1. 21Raúl Beneit
  2. 19D. Sandoval
  3. 11S. El Ftouhi
  1. 6Jota
  2. 23Geovanny Almeida
  3. 8Martín Solar
  1. 2Alejandro Agustín
  2. 4Gonzalez Nacho
  3. 16Fito
  4. 5Hugo Sanz
  1. 1A. Csenterics

Computed on October 15, 2026 at 11:13 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Logroñés have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Mérida AD have 5, 1 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

UD Logroñés
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 12, 2026Lugo(away)1-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 4, 2026Deportivo La Coruña II(home)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026Mérida AD(away)5-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 18, 2026Pontevedra(home)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 12, 2026UD Ourense(away)3-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Mérida AD
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Pontevedra(away)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 4, 2026Cacereño(home)2-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026UD Logroñés(home)3-5Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 19, 2026Ponferradina(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 12, 2026Mirandes(home)3-4Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

In the last meeting: 1 UD Logroñés win, 0 draws, 0 Mérida AD wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 27, 2026Mérida AD 3-5 UD LogroñésPrimera División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés on Sep 27, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

UD Logroñés score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mérida AD score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
UD Logroñés2.10.969/1510/15
Mérida AD1.11.926/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

UD Logroñés sit 2nd in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (16 points from 7 matches) and Mérida AD sit 12th (9 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2UD Logroñés7511161016
12Mérida AD730411129

A question about UD Logroñés vs Mérida AD?

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for UD Logroñés vs Mérida AD?
The Footlab AI model makes UD Logroñés the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Mérida AD.
Where and when is UD Logroñés vs Mérida AD played?
UD Logroñés vs Mérida AD is played on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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