UD Santa Marta vs Atlético Mansillés: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 · Matchday 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, Santa Marta de Tormes
The Footlab AI model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 57%, against 27% for a draw and 16% for Atlético Mansillés. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 6,201 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD Santa Marta vs Atlético Mansillés?
On Elo ratings, UD Santa Marta has 1,947 points and Atlético Mansillés 1,876.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for UD Santa Marta vs Atlético Mansillés
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
UD Santa Marta
Not enough data to predict the UD Santa Marta lineup.
Atlético Mansillés
Not enough data to predict the Atlético Mansillés lineup.
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 07:50 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Santa Marta have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Atlético Mansillés have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Turégano(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Calasanz de Soria(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Salamanca II(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Almazán(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Mirandés II(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Palencia CF(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Colegios Diocesanos(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Villaralbo(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Arandina(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Unionistas II(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 UD Santa Marta win, 2 draws, 1 Atlético Mansillés win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Atlético Mansillés 2-0 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | UD Santa Marta 2-0 Atlético Mansillés | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Atlético Mansillés 1-1 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | UD Santa Marta 0-0 Atlético Mansillés | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
Last archived meeting: Atlético Mansillés vs UD Santa Marta on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UD Santa Marta score 1.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Mansillés score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD Santa Marta | 1.6 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Atlético Mansillés | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD Santa Marta sit 1st in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (26 points from 11 matches) and Atlético Mansillés sit 8th (16 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Santa Marta | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 26 |
| 8 | Atlético Mansillés | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 16 |
A question about UD Santa Marta vs Atlético Mansillés?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD Santa Marta vs Atlético Mansillés?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 57%, against 27% for a draw and 16% for Atlético Mansillés.
- Where and when is UD Santa Marta vs Atlético Mansillés played?
- UD Santa Marta vs Atlético Mansillés is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 6, 2026AlmazánvsBembibre
- Dec 6, 2026Burgos PromesasvsGuijuelo
- Dec 6, 2026Cultural Leonesa IIvsLa Virgen del Camino
- Dec 6, 2026Salamanca IIvsCristo Atlético
- Dec 6, 2026Colegios DiocesanosvsArandina
- Dec 6, 2026Palencia CFvsUnionistas II
- Dec 6, 2026VillaralbovsMirandés II
- Dec 6, 2026Calasanz de SoriavsTurégano