Ulsan Citizen vs Changwon City: prediction and stats
K3 LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Ulsan Complex Stadium, Ulsan
The Footlab model makes Changwon City the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Ulsan Citizen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ulsan Citizen vs Changwon City?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Ulsan Citizen (1,569) and Changwon City (1,663).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ulsan Citizen have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Changwon City have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Jeonbuk Motors II(away) | 1-0 | K3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Gwangju FC(home) | 0-1 | FA Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Ulsan Hyundai FC(home) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Chuncheon(away) | 1-2 | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Seoul E-Land FC(home) | 4-2 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Busan Transportation(away) | 3-4 | K3 League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Jeonbuk Motors II(home) | 1-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Gimhae City(home) | 1-5 | FA Cup |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Chuncheon(home) | 1-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Geumsan Insam(home) | 3-0 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Ulsan Citizen win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Changwon City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Changwon City 2-0 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Ulsan Citizen 0-1 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Changwon City 2-1 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Changwon City 1-0 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
| May 11, 2024 | Ulsan Citizen 0-4 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Jun 23, 2023 | Changwon City 1-2 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
Last archived meeting: Changwon City vs Ulsan Citizen on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ulsan Citizen score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Changwon City score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulsan Citizen | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Changwon City | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ulsan Citizen sit 10th in K3 League (22 points from 19 matches) and Changwon City sit 6th (26 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Changwon City | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Changwon City | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 26 |
| 10 | Ulsan Citizen | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 21 | 22 |
| 11 | Ulsan Citizen | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ulsan Citizen vs Changwon City?
- The Footlab model makes Changwon City the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Ulsan Citizen.
- Where and when is Ulsan Citizen vs Changwon City played?
- Ulsan Citizen vs Changwon City is played on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Ulsan Complex Stadium, in the K3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.