Ulsan Citizen vs Changwon City: prediction and stats
K3 LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Ulsan Complex Stadium, Ulsan
The Footlab AI model makes Ulsan Citizen the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Changwon City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ulsan Citizen wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,591 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ulsan Citizen vs Changwon City?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Ulsan Citizen (1,537) and Changwon City (1,596).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ulsan Citizen vs Changwon City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ulsan Citizen
Not enough data to predict the Ulsan Citizen lineup.
Changwon City
Not enough data to predict the Changwon City lineup.
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 10:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ulsan Citizen have 8 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats; Changwon City have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Yangpyeong(away) | 1-2 | K3 League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Siheung Citizen(home) | 1-2 | K3 League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Daejeon Korail(away) | 1-0 | K3 League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Gyeongju HNP(home) | 1-2 | K3 League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Busan Transportation(home) | 2-1 | K3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pocheon(home) | 1-3 | K3 League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Yangpyeong(home) | 2-1 | K3 League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Gyeongju HNP(away) | 1-2 | K3 League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Siheung Citizen(away) | 1-3 | K3 League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Daejeon Korail(home) | 0-1 | K3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Ulsan Citizen win, 0 draws, 5 Changwon City wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Changwon City 2-0 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Ulsan Citizen 0-1 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Changwon City 2-1 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Changwon City 1-0 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
| May 11, 2024 | Ulsan Citizen 0-4 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Jun 23, 2023 | Changwon City 1-2 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
Last archived meeting: Changwon City vs Ulsan Citizen on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ulsan Citizen score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Changwon City score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulsan Citizen | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Changwon City | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ulsan Citizen sit 10th in K3 League (28 points from 24 matches) and Changwon City sit 9th (29 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Changwon City | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 31 | 29 |
| 10 | Ulsan Citizen | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 25 | 28 | 28 |
A question about Ulsan Citizen vs Changwon City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ulsan Citizen vs Changwon City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ulsan Citizen the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Changwon City.
- Where and when is Ulsan Citizen vs Changwon City played?
- Ulsan Citizen vs Changwon City is played on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Ulsan Complex Stadium, in the K3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.