Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Fatih Karagümrük the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Ümraniyespor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (1,869 vs 1,750).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ümraniyespor have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Fatih Karagümrük have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Esenler Erokspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(away) | 1-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mardin 1969(home) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Keçiörengücü(home) | 1-4 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bursaspor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Iğdır FK(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 16, 2026 | Alanyaspor(home) | 2-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Kocaelispor(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Ümraniyespor win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Fatih Karagümrük win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Ümraniyespor 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük | Türkiye Kupası |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Ümraniyespor 2-2 Fatih Karagümrük | 1. Lig |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Ümraniyespor 0-2 Fatih Karagümrük | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2023 | Fatih Karagümrük 4-2 Ümraniyespor | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ümraniyespor score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Fatih Karagümrük score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ümraniyespor | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ümraniyespor sit 15th in 1. Lig (2 points from 3 matches) and Fatih Karagümrük sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fatih Karagümrük | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 | Ümraniyespor | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
- The Footlab model makes Fatih Karagümrük the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Ümraniyespor.
- Where and when is Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük played?
- Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.