Union Brescia vs Pergolettese: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 21Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia
The Footlab model makes Union Brescia the favourite at 60%, against 26% for a draw and 15% for Pergolettese. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union Brescia vs Pergolettese?
Union Brescia starts as the favourite with a 192-point Elo edge (1,863 vs 1,671).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Brescia have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Pergolettese have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Athletic Carpi(home) | 3-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Arezzo(away) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pro Palazzolo(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Ascoli(away) | 0-3 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Ascoli(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cittadella(away) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | PRO Vercelli(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Inter U23(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Lecco(home) | 3-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Vicenza Virtus(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Union Brescia win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Pergolettese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2026 | Pergolettese 2-1 Union Brescia | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Union Brescia 0-0 Pergolettese | Serie C - Girone A |
Last archived meeting: Pergolettese vs Union Brescia on Feb 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Union Brescia score 1.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Pergolettese score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Brescia | 1.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Pergolettese | 1.0 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union Brescia sit 2nd in Serie C - Girone A (3 points from 1 matches) and Pergolettese sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Union Brescia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 20 | Pergolettese | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union Brescia vs Pergolettese?
- The Footlab model makes Union Brescia the favourite at 60%, against 26% for a draw and 15% for Pergolettese.
- Where and when is Union Brescia vs Pergolettese played?
- Union Brescia vs Pergolettese is played on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.