Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Ekaterinburg Arena, Ekaterinburg
The Footlab model makes Ural the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Nizhny Novgorod. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Ural (1,898) and Nizhny Novgorod (1,833).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ural have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Nizhny Novgorod have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC UFA(home) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(home) | 4-2 | First League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Veles(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(home) | 5-1 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(home) | 3-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Ural win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Nizhny Novgorod win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023 | Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 Ural | Premier League |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Ural 0-0 Nizhny Novgorod | Premier League |
| May 7, 2023 | Nizhny Novgorod 0-0 Ural | Premier League |
| Aug 20, 2022 | Ural 0-1 Nizhny Novgorod | Premier League |
| Feb 26, 2022 | Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 Ural | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2021 | Ural 1-1 Nizhny Novgorod | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural on Dec 2, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Ural score 1.5 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Nizhny Novgorod score 2.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ural | 1.5 | 0.6 | 8 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
| Nizhny Novgorod | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ural sit 4th in First League (14 points from 7 matches) and Nizhny Novgorod sit 1st (18 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Ural | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
- The Footlab model makes Ural the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Nizhny Novgorod.
- Where and when is Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod played?
- Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Ekaterinburg Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.