FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)BetBoom Аrena, Ufa
The Footlab model makes FC UFA the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Arsenal Tula. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate FC UFA (1,796) and Arsenal Tula (1,781).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC UFA have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Arsenal Tula have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Enisey(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spartak Kostroma(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ural(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | KAMAZ(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Veles(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(away) | 2-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(home) | 1-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FC UFA win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Arsenal Tula win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | FC UFA 1-2 Arsenal Tula | First League |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Arsenal Tula 2-2 FC UFA | First League |
| May 18, 2025 | FC UFA 1-2 Arsenal Tula | First League |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Arsenal Tula 0-0 FC UFA | First League |
| Mar 26, 2023 | Arsenal Tula 2-1 FC UFA | First League |
| Sep 2, 2022 | FC UFA 0-2 Arsenal Tula | First League |
Last archived meeting: FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula on Nov 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
FC UFA score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal Tula score 0.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC UFA | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Arsenal Tula | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC UFA sit 7th in First League (12 points from 7 matches) and Arsenal Tula sit 9th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC UFA | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| 9 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula?
- The Footlab model makes FC UFA the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Arsenal Tula.
- Where and when is FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula played?
- FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at BetBoom Аrena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.